Incalculable damage will occur over the next four years, and it will take my kids’ entire lifetimes for us to dig back out of the hole we’ve put ourselves in. Okay, we know that. So let’s be clear-eyed and look at the world that is. I…am weirdly hopeful.
Data on trends across the globe show that inflation was high everywhere in the wake of pandemic-driven supply chain disruptions. The same data shows that incumbent parties lost major voter shares everywhere, in every election, all year. At the same time, exit polls show that the Republican coalition did not actually change much from 2020 to 2024. Trump objectively wasn’t a stronger candidate than before. There wasn’t a weakness in the Democratic campaign. There wasn’t even a weakness in polling. The deck was just stacked — with conditions set up by an underlying global susceptibility to shocks, reverberating through our interconnected economy for four years and counting, all in a disinformation environment where the misinformed drove the election result. People were frustrated, and it’s not clear the Democrats could have beaten the anti-incumbent headwinds.
(This is not meant to excuse people who “just wanted to send a message on the economy” from the fact that they necessarily overlooked Trump’s disregard of laws, his demonstrated misunderstanding of our system of government, his bullying attitude, his personal immorality, his hostile bigotry, or his odious social stances. Maybe they did so out of ignorance, in which case they were irresponsible about voting; or maybe they did so on purpose, in which case they were, and are, malicious.)
But I think the Democratic strategy now — beyond the day-to-day labor of backstopping a tilt into autocracy — should be clear. Let’s assume the next administration enacts everything from the Project 2025 playbook. That stuff is intensely unpopular and will create more major economic shocks, not to mention the countless immoral cruelties. The “Day 1” promises made during this campaign are likely to lead to higher inflation, if not an outright recession. So the path is simple: from now to 2028, make Republicans own everything. Swing back into power after they overextend. Then, use the clean slate provided by Project 2025’s scouring of government to offer a progressive counterargument that actually addresses the conditions of the working and middle classes in this country.
This is not to say there won’t be hard fights between then and now. I fully expect Republican legislators in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to put forward acts saying, “We are making an administrative change to how our state assigns Presidential Electors. They are now all awarded to the Republican candidate who receives the most votes.” We are in an extremely challenging disinformation environment, where most Americans’ news sources depend on the whims of the ultrarich across the globe. There will be difficult tactical threats, bigotry, and violence that the next administration will create on a day to day level, not to mention drastic economic hardships. I grieve for the freedom, values, and capabilities that we’ve just lost. I think others have written plenty about that — here are some of the essays I’ve found helpful, for one reason or another:
- Teri Kanefield on the connections between authoritarianism, the ability to grasp complexity, and the experience of Pinochet’s Chile
- Waging Nonviolence’s ways to mentally prepare for a coming autocratic administration
- A.R. Moxon on how an opposition to fascist rule must differentiate itself from the devil’s bargains the autocracy relies on
Given all that, let’s say the coming administration is just as bad as it announces it will be. People are going to hate it. So I see an opportunity. If they’re going to tear the house down, we can build it back up. Better.
Let’s see the progressive answer to Project 2025.
This will necessarily involve some flavor of restoring things back to normal. There will have to be some clawing back of lost fundamental rights. But, in the vacuum left by eliminating government departments and burning regulations, let’s see the case for progressive solutions to problems. This should be easy: when polled head-to-head, Democratic policies have been more popular than Republican policies for decades.
If they repeal Obamacare, kneecap Medicare and Medicaid, and leave a Wild West of predatory health care middleman companies, let’s see the plan for a new single-payer health system. We can look at every country that has such a system for ideas. They’re all better and cheaper than what we have now.
If they cut income, corporate, and capital gains taxes to benefit a New Gilded Age oligarchy, let’s see the plan to go back to a Reagan-era tax code, or even earlier — when America was the economic engine of the world. Evidently the economy didn’t suffer or lack for innovation when the top marginal income tax rate was 90%.
If they deregulate corporate activity, let’s see the case for vigorous antitrust enforcement.
If they collapse Social Security, food stamps, and other welfare programs, let’s see the plan to implement universal basic income. There are plenty of successful pilot programs out there now!
If they pump guns into our streets, let’s see a requirement for proof of liability insurance with every purchase of ammunition.
If they deport tens of millions of workers while pining about declining US population, let’s see a plan to make legal immigration easy, as it was for much of our history.
If they try to make gerrymandering permanent, let’s restore the House of Representatives to its original ratio of representatives to population.
If they militarize the police, let’s see a new structure where public safety departments rely more on paramedics, social workers, and mental health interventions to perform rigorous threat reduction.
If they propagandize and defund schools, let’s see a renewal of public education.
If they muzzle scientists, let’s see a plan for investment in American science and technology.
Let’s see public campaign financing, and all other money out of politics forever.
Let’s see reform of the judiciary, to prevent a partisan capture from ever again declaring itself immune to the law.
In short, let’s show that while Republican rule sets out to enrich a very few by exacerbating chaos, there are clear policy ideas to increase participation in our society, culture, economy, and government. Let’s show that one party is out to solve problems while the other causes them before our eyes.